A podcast · hosted by Martin Tobias · Incisive Ventures
Conviction
before proof.
Founders, professional investors, poker players — and anyone deploying capital under low information and huge uncertainty. The bets that pay off the most are the ones that sound stupid at the time. The First Bet drags them back to the moment before they knew — what they had to go on, why they bet anyway, and what they saw that everyone else missed.
The Test
Every great capital allocation sounds stupid before it works.
Couch-surfing for strangers.
Buttons that summon cars.
A check into three slides.
The First Bet sits with the people who pushed chips in anyway — and pulls apart what they saw that nobody else did.
The Lens
Every guest has one rule they carry into every bet.
Not a story — a portable heuristic. The thing they reach for when the information is thin and the chips are already in.
I'm not a risk taker. I'm a risk trader.
The Feed
Latest episodes
EP3: Simon Lancaster: The Manufacturing digitization VC before it was cool.
Most manufacturing innovation is overlooked — until now. Simon Lancaster shares why automation, AI, and digitization are reshaping factories fast.
Listen →Shaun Gold: The Pivot and the Long Game
Shaun Gold shares his unconventional journey from nightlife to venture capital, emphasizing the importance of risk-taking, self-belief, and understanding market dynamics. This episode offers insights into decision-making, fundraising, and the realities of startup investing.
Listen →Alec Torelli: The Risk Trader
In this episode, Martin Tobias interviews professional poker player Alec Torelli, who shares his journey of taking risks and making pivotal life decisions. The conversation explores the concept of risk trading versus risk taking, the frameworks for evaluating risks and rewards, a…
Listen →The Newsletter
Never miss a bet.
Each episode: the bet, the Lens, and the transcript — the book, serialized.
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